Operation of China's photovoltaic industry in the

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Operation of China's photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year

in the first half of the year, the development situation of China's photovoltaic industry was improved compared with the same period in 2012 due to the joint action of policy guidance and market driving factors. The overall operation of the industry was stabilized, the output of polysilicon rose month by month, the operating conditions of some battery enterprises improved, and the domestic photovoltaic market expanded steadily

I. production and manufacturing links

(I) the total amount of polysilicon

has slightly declined compared with the same period, but the development situation is good. In the first half of the year, China's polysilicon production capacity was about 90000 tons, accounting for about 20.5% of the world; The output was 31000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, accounting for about 27% of the world. The output gradually rebounded, increasing from 3600 tons in January to 6500 tons in June. A few backbone enterprises that have stopped production are planning to resume production

the import volume remains at a high level and is expected to decrease throughout the year. In the first half of the year, China imported 39000 tons of polysilicon, unchanged year-on-year, mainly from the United States, South Korea, Germany and other countries, accounting for 33%, 29% and 24% respectively. With the continuous implementation of China's double countermeasures against polysilicon in the United States, South Korea and other countries, the annual polysilicon import volume is expected to decrease, which is expected to be between 60000 and 80000 tons

the industrial concentration is constantly improving, and the industrial layout is becoming more and more reasonable. In the first half of the year, there were only eight polysilicon enterprises in China, of which Jiangsu Zhongneng produced 22000 tons, accounting for about 71% of the country. In the industry, Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. has never stopped its pace of excellent service, and the concentration has gradually increased. Nearly 80% of polysilicon enterprises will stop production, and some enterprises with long shutdown time and weak competitiveness will be gradually eliminated by the market; Affected by the pressure of product prices, some regions with rich energy resources and low power costs (such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc.) have gradually become an important direction for the transfer of polysilicon industry

(II) the production scale of battery components

remained stable, and exports gradually diversified. In the first half of the year, the capacity of battery modules in China exceeded 40gw, accounting for about 67% of the world; The output is about 11.5gw, accounting for about 67.5% of the world, unchanged year-on-year. The export volume was about 7.5GW, and the export volume was nearly US $5billion, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Europe is still the main export destination, but its proportion has decreased from nearly 70% in the same period last year to about 50%. The proportion of exports from Japan, the United States, India and other countries is increasing

the price of components rises slowly, and the production cost continues to decline. Similar to the international price trend, the domestic polysilicon battery module price has increased from nearly 4 yuan/watt at the beginning of 2013 to 4.3 yuan/watt at present. The production cost has been declining, and the mainstream production cost of the industry has fallen below 0.6 US dollars/watt. Some backbone enterprises have reached nearly 0.5 US dollars/watt, and it is expected to fall below 0.5 US dollars/watt by the end of the year

the shipment volume of key enterprises continues to increase, and the industrial concentration is expected to further improve. The shipment volume of backbone battery module enterprises increased year-on-year to varying degrees, and the market advantage continued to strengthen. In the first half of the year, the shipment volume of China's top seven component manufacturers exceeded 5GW, accounting for about 45% of the total output of the country. At the same time, industrial integration is also accelerating. Wuxi Suntech and Henderson PV have gone bankrupt and restructured one after another, and the industrial concentration is expected to further improve

the production and operation conditions of enterprises have improved, and some enterprises are expected to turn losses within the year. With the rise of component prices and the decline of costs, the operating conditions of enterprises have been greatly improved. The gross profit margin of some enterprises has become positive, and the gross profit of some backbone enterprises has reached about 10%. It is expected that the supply of raw materials will continue to decline and turn losses into profits at the end of the year (3). The preliminary settlement plan of the Sino EU photovoltaic double anti case has been reached, which plays a positive role in promoting the industry out of difficulties

the financial situation of the enterprise is still tense, and the arrears of accounts are serious. The total liabilities of China's top 10 photovoltaic enterprises still exceed 100 billion yuan. Due to the sharp decline in gross profit of products, the tightening of credit of financial institutions, the figures released by Turkey's state-run anadulu news agency, the application of support policies and insufficient funds, and the imperfect commercial credit environment, the domestic photovoltaic enterprises are still in arrears. The turnover days of accounts receivable in the first quarter of 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 60 days, 104 days and 116 days respectively. With the deepening of industrial integration and enterprise bankruptcy and reorganization, the situation of bad and doubtful debts may be further aggravated

(III) other links

the development of photovoltaic manufacturing links such as ingots, pullers and chips has stabilized and rebounded, the development of supporting links such as photovoltaic inverter manufacturing has also continued to improve, and some backbone enterprises have increased orders and entered full load production. In the first half of the year, silicon wafer output was about 15gw, flat year-on-year; Processing costs have continued to decline, falling below $0.11/watt. The output of photovoltaic inverter is about 2.9gw, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%

II. Market application link

the global photovoltaic market continues to grow, with the focus shifting to China, Japan, the United States and other countries. In the first half of the year, the global photovoltaic market demand was 16GW, with a year-on-year increase of 9%. Among them, China is about 2.8gw, Japan is about 3gw, Germany is about 1.9gw, and the United States is about 1.6gw, accounting for about 60% of the world in total. The overall market demand is on the rise. It is expected that the global annual installed capacity will reach 35gw, including about 10GW in Europe, about 8GW in China, about 5GW in Japan and about 3.5gW in the United States. The market focus will gradually shift from Europe to China, Japan, the United States and other countries

the domestic market is expanding rapidly, and the problem is still the bottleneck restricting the development of the market. In the first half of the year, 1.5gw of the 2.8gw installed capacity in China came from the second batch of golden sun and optoelectronic construction projects last year, and 1.3gw is a large-scale photovoltaic power station; The annual installed capacity is expected to reach 8GW, including 5GW of large-scale photovoltaic power stations, 2gw of golden sun demonstration project and 1GW of distributed generation demonstration area. However, the construction cycle of photovoltaic power stations and electricity is not synchronized, and the coordination of power station and electricity development planning will still be the key to further expand the domestic market

photovoltaic applications gradually realize the transition from policy driven to market driven in terms of user side parity. Traditional photovoltaic countries such as Germany and Italy are constantly reducing photovoltaic subsidies or setting installed capacity caps. However, with the rapid decline of product prices, photovoltaic power generation in some countries has achieved user side parity, and the application will change from policy driven to market driven

III. follow up development prospects

in mid July 2013, several opinions of the State Council on promoting the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry (GF [2013] No. 24, hereinafter referred to as the "opinions") have been officially released, and overall arrangements have been made for regulating the development of the photovoltaic industry, expanding the domestic application market, and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading. According to the spirit of the opinions, all relevant departments are actively carrying out work to accelerate the formulation and implementation of supporting policies and measures such as the standardized conditions of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, the implementation opinions on the merger and reorganization of photovoltaic enterprises, the photovoltaic standard system, and the administrative measures for the allocation of subsidy funds related to photovoltaic power generation

with China's opening of the test motor source switch to the United States and South Korea, the preliminary determination of polysilicon double anti, the preliminary conclusion of the Sino European Photovoltaic double anti settlement plan, and the accelerated start of the domestic photovoltaic market, the external environment for industrial development continues to improve, and the overall development of China's photovoltaic industry is expected to stabilize and rebound in the second half of the year. According to the calculation of China photovoltaic industry alliance, it is estimated that in 2013, China's polysilicon output will be about 80000 tons, the output of battery modules will exceed 23gw, and the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 8GW

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