The economy is expected to maintain a steady growt

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Good start the economy is expected to maintain steady growth this year

according to the PMI index and import and export data of January recently released by the National Bureau of statistics and the General Administration of customs, the economy has a good start this year, laying a good foundation for steady economic growth throughout the year. Insiders said that China's economic structure is gradually changing, and this year's economic operation may maintain a relatively stable growth trend. Monetary policy is expected to remain stable and neutral, while fiscal policy will more actively help stabilize growth

the economy may maintain a stable situation

"China's economy has shown signs of stabilizing recently." Wangyouxin, a researcher at the Institute of international finance of Bank of China, said that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2016 was 6.8%, rising for the first time in nearly 11 quarters. The PMI index was above the boom and bust line for six consecutive months. The government began to balance deleveraging, risk prevention and steady growth through monetary policy

as for the fact that PMI continues to be at a high level above the boom and bust line, Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities, believes that the foundation of economic growth has been further consolidated, and factors such as the "prevention and control of asset foam" at the central economic work conference show that there is no risk of a sharp decline in China's economy at present

Ren Zeping, chief economist of Founder Securities, believes that the market has great differences on the macroeconomic trend this year. Some people believe that as the boom of the real estate and automobile industries falls, the economic operation in the second and third quarters will encounter pressure. However, although the economy may double bottom in the second and third quarters, the range will not be deep

Yao Shaohua, an analyst at ABC international, believes that although China's economic prospects are still facing challenges this year, the economy will maintain a relatively stable growth trend against the backdrop of the gradual success of supply side reform. The application and construction investment of electronic universal testing machines in the basic construction industry will maintain a strong growth rate, the industrial sector will be moderately improved, and the consumption growth rate will remain stable, which will be the main driving forces of economic growth

in terms of domestic demand, Yao Shaohua said that investment in manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to maintain a stable growth, but under the strict implementation of real estate control measures, the overall investment in fixed assets slowed down slightly. Benefiting from the stable income and employment growth of residents, consumption will maintain a steady growth

generally speaking, Li Chao believes that the macroeconomic risk point this year is mainly in the real estate industry chain, but under the hedge of demand side bottoming and the rising contribution of consumption to the economy, there is no stall risk, and it is difficult for GDP growth to decline significantly; The annual economic growth rate of 6.5% is not a big problem, and it is expected that the annual GDP growth rate may be 6.6%

monetary policy remains stable and neutral

in terms of policy points this year, Li Xunlei, chief economist of Qilu asset management, believes that deepening reform on the premise of stable growth can be grasped, the reform of state-owned enterprises and the reform of financial supervision system are the two major focuses. In recent years, the price of steady growth is the abnormal growth of money and investment. The gap between nominal GDP and treasury bond yield is an important manifestation of excessive money issuance. One of the costs of the sustained high growth of M2 is the rapid growth of the leverage ratio of the whole society. Under the premise of controlling the total leverage ratio, reducing the leverage ratio of enterprises should be the top priority

as for monetary policy and fiscal policy, Li Xunlei believes that this year, monetary policy tends to be stable and neutral, and fiscal policy will be more active. From the perspective of economic growth, the growth rate affects corporate profits and then the market. There are only structural opportunities in the context of economic slowdown. The 13th five year plan brings new opportunities for development, and new consumption, information economy and intelligent manufacturing have become the three main lines of industry

Li Chao said that this year, the industrial sector continues to reduce production capacity, the monetary policy is stable and neutral, preventing financial risks, reducing leverage and controlling foam are still the main themes. In the budget, the fiscal policy will continue to drive infrastructure investment when the contradiction between the fiscal policy and the equipment policy is aggravated by separating the data characteristics of their daily demand testing

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the central bank raised the MLF interest rate by 10 basis points while introducing temporary liquidity facilities. This shows that the central bank intends to seek a balance between liquidity stability and deleveraging. In the context of rising inflation and deleveraging, monetary policy in the next quarter may continue to show the theme of steady, neutral and marginal tightening

the research report released by Bank of Nanjing pointed out that from the recent operation of the central bank, risk prevention is the first priority, and the market capital is likely to be in the cycle of "loose + tight". This year, we need to pay real-time attention to the greater gap between the implementation of Trump's economic policy and the developed countries in Europe and the United States, as well as its impact on China's monetary policy and the international market, and timely adjust the operation strategy accordingly

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